Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.