Trump Supporters Backing Mamdani and a Emerging Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Unexpected Outcomes from NYC’s Election

Just two days before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. So there was some opposition. But no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.