Why 2026 Is Set to Be a Year Like No Other for the Indian Solar Observation Mission

Regarding India's first solar observatory, 2026 is expected to be like no other.

This marks the initial occasion the observatory – that entered into space last year – can observe our star when it reaches the peak of its solar cycle.

As per research, this occurs approximately once every 11 years when the Sun's magnetic poles flip – the Earth equivalent could be the planet's poles changing places.

This period marked by intense activity. It sees our star transition from peaceful to violent and features a significant rise in the frequency of solar eruptions and massive solar flares – enormous clouds of plasma that erupt of the Sun's outermost layer.

Made up of ionized particles, a CME can weigh up to a trillion kilograms and reach velocities of up to 3,000km per second. It can travel toward various directions, even toward our planet. At maximum velocity, it would take an ejection 15 hours to cover the vast distance Earth-Sun distance.

"In the normal or low-activity times, the Sun launches a few solar eruptions a day," explains a leading scientist. "In 2026, we expect there will be 10 or more daily."

Researching coronal mass ejections ranks among the most important research goals for the Indian first solar observatory. Firstly, as these eruptions provide an opportunity to learn about the star at the centre of our solar system, and secondly, since events occurring on the solar surface endanger systems on Earth and in orbit.

Impacts on Our Planet and Orbital Systems

CMEs seldom present a direct threat to people, but they do affect our planet by causing geomagnetic storms affecting conditions in near space, where about 11,000 satellites, including Indian satellites, orbit.

"The most spectacular displays from solar eruptions include northern lights, being direct evidence that charged particles from our star journey toward our planet," the expert clarifies.

"But they can also cause electronic systems on a satellite fail, knock down power grids and disrupt weather and communication satellites."

Historical Solar Incidents

• The strongest solar storm in history occurred during the 1859 solar superstorm which knocked out telegraph lines worldwide
• In 1989, sections of Canadian electrical network was knocked out, affecting millions in darkness for nine hours
• In November 2015, solar storms disrupted flight operations, leading to chaos across Scandinavia and some other European airports
• Recently in 2022, a CME had led to 38 commercial satellites being lost

If we are able to observe events on the Sun's corona and detect a solar storm or solar eruption as it happens, measure its heat at the source and track its path, it can work as a forewarning to shut down power grids and satellites and move them out of harm's way.

The Mission's Unique Advantage

There are other space observatories watching the Sun, India's spacecraft has an advantage compared to rivals when it comes to studying the solar atmosphere.

"Aditya-L1's coronagraph has perfect dimensions that lets it effectively simulate the Moon, fully covering the Sun's photosphere and allowing it continuous observation of nearly the entire of the corona 24 hours a day, throughout the year, even during eclipses and occultations," says the researcher.

Essentially, this instrument functions as an artificial Moon, blocking the Sun's bright surface allowing researchers continuously observe its faint outer corona – something natural eclipses provide only during eclipses.

Additionally, it's unique that can study eruptions in visible light, enabling it to determine a CME's temperature and thermal output – crucial data that show the intensity a CME would be if it headed toward Earth.

Preparation for Peak Period

To prepare for next year's solar maximum, scientists worked together to study information gathered from a major CMEs recorded by the mission has recorded until now.

It originated in September 2024 during early hours. The eruption's weight was 270 million tonnes – the iceberg that sank Titanic weighed much less.

Initially, its temperature was 1.8 million degrees Celsius with energy equivalent was equivalent to 2.2 million megatons of TNT – relative to the atomic bombs used in Japan were much smaller and 21 kilotons each.

Although these figures make it sound incredibly large, the scientist classifies it as a moderate event.

The asteroid that eliminated prehistoric life on Earth carried enormous energy and during the Sun's maximum activity cycle, we could see eruptions with energy content equal to even more than that.

"I consider the CME we evaluated happened when the Sun of typical solar activity. Now this sets the benchmark that we'll be using assessing what to expect during solar maximum arrives," he says.

"The learnings from this will assist in work out protective measures to be adopted to protect spacecraft in near space. They will also help us gain deeper knowledge of near-Earth space," he concludes.